Last week’s NCAAF record: 2-1
Season NCAAF record: 23-11
Friday
PAC-12 Championship:
Oregon vs. Utah: over 46
Both teams have a ‘good defense’ but that’s relatively speaking, as outside of USC and Washington State, the PAC-12 hasn’t been known for its offensive firepower this year. Utah’s defense gave up 28 points to Washington and Oregon got 31 dropped on them by Arizona State (both those teams are just average offensively). The windy weather is a cause for concern, but I feel like both teams are explosive enough to put up at least 23 points a piece on each other’s defense. Oregon QB Justin Herbert was widely considered the best QB prospect in this year’s upcoming draft going into this season, and with a bunch of NFL caliber talent around him (like WRs Johnny Johnson III and Jaylen Redd) playing with their backs to the wind for half the game, they should be able to come up with 3 touchdown drives. On the other side, Utah is currently ranked number 5 in the CFP poll. The Utes have one of the best backfields in the country that no one really talks about with QB Tyler Huntley and RB Zack Moss. With a potential trip to the CFP on the line with a win and Georgia loss (we’ll get to that game later) I expect them to be focused and clicking on all cylinders to get the win. If they do, they’ll need to put points up to try to keep up (or hold off) Oregon. This game won’t be low scoring. Take the over.
Saturday
Big 12 Championship:
Oklahoma (-8.5) vs. Baylor
Some people may look at this line and think I’m tripping. Especially because of how the game turned out the last time these 2 schools played and Baylor going up 28-3 before eventually allowing a Oklahoma comeback. Well when you take a closer look at that game, Baylor was the beneficiary of 3 first half touchdowns as a result of Sooner turnovers. I don’t think Baylor will be as lucky this time around. While I do think their defense is a really good unit, I think Oklahoma’s offense is simply better and this game should play out a lot more like the second half of the last time these 2 teams met, where Oklahoma outscored Baylor 24-0. When you add in the fact that Utah losing last night opens the door for the winner of this game to get the fourth and final spot in this year’s playoff. Jalen Hurts and Lincoln Riley won’t let this opportunity slip by them. If/OU’s offense gets to rolling, I don’t think Baylor’s offense will be able to keep pace. The Sooner defense has also been playing better as of late and expect Oklahoma to come out firing on all cylinders and play their best football of the season. The Sooners SHOULD cover this spread.
Mountain West Championship
Boise State vs. Hawaii: over 64.5
We all know by now that Hawaii can score with just about anybody you put them on the field with. That’s just a given. They’ve looked really impressive most of the year offensively. The problem is, defensively, they give up a lot of points as well which isn’t good (for them). Boise State’s offense is always efficient, but this year they’re especially lethal. The last time these 2 teams met (earlier this season), the final score was 59-37 in the Broncos’ favor. The weather is somewhat of a factor and MAY slightly affect the Rainbow Warriors’ chances to put points on the board, but even if they can’t, I think Boise can hang 45-50 by themselves and in that case, I think Hawaii will be good for 2 garbage time TDs to get this total over.
SEC Championship
Georgia vs. LSU (-7.5)
I know that Georgia has somewhat of a “home-field advantage” with this game being played in Atlanta, but that’s about the only thing they have the upper hand on when I look at this matchup. Georgia came out of the SEC East (by far the weaker of the 2 divisions) and they’ve struggled offensively most of the year. I don’t expect that to change today, especially with De’Andre Swift being banged up with a shoulder injury and not having their top 2 receivers (one being out due to injury and the other being suspended for a half). On the other side of the ball, everyone knows what LSU has done and what they’re capable of offensively. Georgia’s defense is viewed as the strength of their team, but who have they played? The key to this game will be LSU’s offensive line against UGA’s defensive. front (which is pretty good). If LSU’s offensive line can block Georgia’s defensive front, it’s going to be A VERY LONG DAY for the Bulldog DBs as Joe Burrow will have time to pick them apart.
