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This week’s crop of games will be fun to watch, but Vegas didn’t do any favors setting these lines. They have shown me why they are professionals and I’m an amateur. Trying to pick winning bets this week feels like I’m trying to slip past a bunch of Fortier students in front McDonald’s on Canal Street by myself wearing a John F. Kennedy school uniform without being noticed (if you went to high school in New Orleans, you’ll get that reference), I’m walking on THIN ICE 🤦🏾♂️. With that being said, let’s get into what I like this weekend.
Temple (+4) vs. Memphis
Memphis goes on the road to face one of the best defenses in the country. Memphis’ offense hasn’t looked like its usual ‘go up & down the field on opponents at will’ self as of late. They’ve even struggled at times against some of the worst teams in college football. Temple is exceptional at not allowing the one thing Memphis excels at - creating explosive, game changing plays. Those elements combined with the fact that Memphis might be looking ahead to a showdown with Tulane next week and I think the Owls pull this one off. If not, they at least cover the spread.
Toledo (-27) vs. Bowling Green
I know this is a huge number to swallow and I would generally advise against giving up this many points, but Bowling Green has not only lost every game this season vs. FBS competition, they’ve failed to cover each week as well, including being a 45 point underdog and losing by 52. Toledo shouldn’t have any problems controlling the pace of this game and scoring whenever they want to.
Duke (-17.5) vs. Georgia Tech
Duke played about as badly as a team could and constantly shot itself in the foot with turnovers last week, and still almost won their game. That shows a lot of character. Georgia Tech on the other hand isn’t very good at stopping the run, allowing over 200 yards on the ground. If you can’t stop the run, you’re pretty much asking the other team to beat the brakes off of you. Especially on the road. Look for the Blue Devils to roll.
Marshall (-15) vs. Old Dominion
The Thundering Herd rank 36th in the country in rushing with 205 yards per game. Additionally, ODU can’t generate anything on offense through the ground or the air and also have a knack for turning the ball over. QB Stone Smart has thrown 5 interceptions on the year and only one touchdown. That’s not a good stat to bring on the road to face a stout Marshall defense.
Wisconsin/Michigan State: over 40
We have a battle of two defensive heavyweights at Camp Randle. Wisconsin comes in with the nation’s number one total defense, giving up a little bit under 180 yards per game and 5.80 points per contest. Michigan State isn’t too far behind them, allowing 18 ppg and and 299 yards. This has all the makings of a low scoring game, until you do a little deeper digging. Jonathan Taylor is the only running back in the Heisman conversation at this point, rushing for 149 yards per game and 12 touchdowns through 6 games. Badgers QB Jack Coan is connecting on nearly 75% of his pass attemps and takes care of the ball as well. He has thrown for 9 TDs and only 1 INT so far this season. Add in the fact that this is Michigan State’s 3 road game in 4 weeks, and I see their defense eventually being worn down and allowing quite a few points. I think the Spartan offense is capable of scoring 14-17 points to easily push the total over 40. Shout out to Johnny for the assist on this one. I don’t know how I missed this total.
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