Ok, I'm back for another fun (and pocket filling) weekend of college football. This week, there aren't a ton of exciting games to choose from and the lines reflect the mostly ugly matchups. Again, this forces people to think longer and harder before putting their money down, which can sometimes lead to second guessing and losse. Hopefully that won’t be the case with me, so with that being said, lets get into these picks.
Buffalo/Eastern Michigan; over 50
Buffalo has one of the nation's best running games, averaging 221 yards per game on the ground. They've scored a little bit over 26 points per contest while EMU's defense gives up 32 points per game. On the flip side, Eastern Michigan has the 24th ranked passing game in the country and average nearly 28 points per game, while Buffalo's defense gives up 23.4 points. Neither team's defense is particularly good and both offenses rank inside the top 25 in at least one aspect of offense. I don't see why the scoreboard won't be lit up for this one. It should easily go over.
Liberty (-24) vs. UMass
Typically, I wouldn't bet a game like this at such a huge number, especially considering that Liberty DIDN'T get the job done last week against a bad Rutgers team (disclaimer: Rutgers IS bad but they're still in a Power 5 conference). Well this week, Liberty has a chance to redeem themselves and show that they're on the right track. They face an even worse UMass team that has only won one game and all of their defeats have come from average to (other) bad teams. On top of that, they've lost each game by an average of 32 points. Liberty is ARGUABLY the most talented team they'll see all year up to this point. This might get ugly. Lay the points.
Troy (-1) @ Coastal Carolina
Troy has one of the best passing games in the entire country. QB Kaleb Barker averages 309 yards per game (good for 35th in the nation). The Trojans have lost 2 of the last 3 and got gashed for 300 yards on the ground last week, but that was an anomaly against a good Georgia Southern running team. On offense, Coastal Carolina can run the ball but I think Troy will be motivated to show they can stop or at least slow down the run after last week’s embarrassing performance. On the other side of the ball, Coastal can’t stop the run or the pass and they have given up a little bit under 40 points per game over the past month. Look for Troy to win and cover this small spread.
Florida (+6.5) vs Georgia
This is a big rivalry game with HUGE SEC East implications. The winner of this game will most likely represent the Eastern division in the SEC Championship Game in December. Florida's offense, led by Kyle Trask (who has thrown 14 TDs since taking over for injured Felipe Franks) is hitting their stride at the right time. The Gators’ defense will also get back 2 defensive studs - Jabari Zuniga and Johnathan Greenard - that should bolster an already stout defensive unit and I don’t think Georgia has the firepower to pull away from any decent team. I think Florida is better than Georgia this year and they have a very good chance to win this game outright, but to play it 'safe' just take the points.
‘Bargin bin’ picks:
So since this week’s games don’t look appealing, I decided to have a little fun with the schedule. So you know when you go to Walmart and in the entertainment section you see a bin full of old DVDs that are super cheap, well this is kind of a similar concept, except I’ll just have picks instead of DVDs lol. I won’t give any analysis as to why, it’s just basically me eyeballing spreads and totals and picking a winner on the spot. Of course, this won’t count for or against my record. You’re basically just rummaging through a pile to see what you can find
Texas A&M (-38.5) vs. UTSA
Texas A&M/UTSA: over 53
Akron (+6) vs Bowling Green
Notre Dame (-17.5) vs. Virginia Tech
Miami (+3) vs. Florida State
Tulane/Tulsa: over 62.5
Washington/Utah: under 47.5 (this goes against everything I believe in, but hey 🤷🏾♂️)
SMU/Memphis: over 70
Fresno/Hawaii: over 69.5
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