Last week’s NCAAF record: 3-2
Season NCAAF record: 17-10
Last week, my 'lock of the year' came through (LSU/Bama over - as expected) but overall I didn't have that great of a day in college. On the surface, this week seems to look a lot easier with more favorable match-ups and spreads and totals that look like they make sense on paper. See, that's the thing with Vegas, they've made billions of dollars and built tons of casinos & sportsbooks by people thinking exactly like this. So that's why I had to curb my enthusiasm and concentrate on the research as opposed to what just looks good at first glance. Anyways, let's get into this week's winners.
Penn State/Indiana - over 55
When people look at this game, they'll figure Penn State should roll over Indiana. At a closer glance, you'll notice that the Hooisers have one of the best offenses in the B10, averaging almost 32 points per game (31.75 to be exact). Penn State's defense has been pretty stingy but they haven't really played anybody with a good offense, so their numbers and stats can be a bit misleading. I would argue that Indiana might be the best offense they'll see all year up to this point. On the flip side, Indiana's defense won't be able to stop Penn State from doing whatever it is they want to do so 8 TDs or 56 points shouldn't be a problem to get to.
Florida State/Alabama State - over 53
For as much as people talk about FSU 'falling off', it is not because of their offense. They consistently put up anywhere between 25-40 points per game against quality opponents. While Alabama State does have a pretty good defense by FCS standards and pushed UAB to the limit in week one, they will be no match for James Blackmon, Cam Aykers and the Seminole offense. For at least one week, Florida State will look like an elite program again. The bottom line is, Florida State needs this win to become bowl eligible because they won't win next week against Florida. They really need to win this game in dominating fashion to impress some of the bowl organizations to pick them to play in their game in December, so they'll come into this game focused and ready to rock. FSU might put up 50 by themselves.
Troy (-7) @ Texas State
I've been watching Troy for a few weeks now and one thing is for certain, they can put up a lot of points. I don't know if I can say the same for Texas State, who has only scored over 20 points twice this season, and against 2 of the worst teams in college football. Troy's defense is vulnerable and is liable to give up points in bunches, but I don't see the Wildcats being much of a threat to keep this game within a touchdown as the Trojans will score at will.
Texas A&M (-11) vs. South Carolina
The Aggies get a home game after a bye against a South Carolina team that is flat out not good and being decimated by injuries. The Gamecocks are pulling all their freshmen and the veterans who have played less than 4 games to preserve their redshirts (in anticipation for next season and beyond). Furthermore, they are starting 2 walk-ons at wide receiver. Ouch. TAMU will roll @ home. I feel comfortable laying the point. Kellen Mond & co. will roll @ home.
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