Itchy’s NFL Week 12 Picks Against the Spread

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Last week’s NFL record: 1-1-1
Season NFL record of released picks: 8-3-1

This week is looking real spooky! There are a lot of terrible games and Las Vegas isn’t making it any easier to pick winners, but that’s what makes this shit fun and more gratifying when you do win. So before I go on & on about how hard this week is, I’ma just get into what I feel are good bets for today.

Giants @ Bears: over 40.5

At first glance, I know this looks terrifying, especially with Chicago’s offense looking aweful at times. But one thing that sticks out to me about this game is the fact that Bears LB Danny Trevathan isn’t playing. That should be enough of an absence for the Giants’ offense (which is sneaky good) to put up at least 20 points, provided they can withstand Khalil Mack and the Chicago pass rush. The Giants’ defense is pretty bad too so this should be a spot where the Bears can put some points up and actually look like a good offense for at least this week.

Falcons (-3.5) vs Buccaneers

I’ve made some good money betting against the Falcons for the first half of the season. Well today that changes. Since Dan Quinn has re-assigned some of his coaches around, Atlanta has LOOKED like a totally different team. Make no mistake, they’re still not good, but they just so happen to have the fortune of playing a terrible Tampa team that gives up about 30 points every single week. Additionally, Jamies Winston can’t seem to stop throwing passes to the wrong team. The Falcons should be able to win this game by more than a field goal

SN: as a Saints fan, I’m going to absolutely HATE rooting for the Falcons today lol.

Browns (-10.5) vs. Dolphins

Cleveland is obviously the better team and should win this game convincingly, but honestly this huge number scares me a bit. Even so, I just don’t see how Miami is going to be able to put points up. Even without Myles Garrett and Olivier Vernon, the Browns’ defense should be able to contain the Dolphins’ offense. On the other side of the ball, the Browns should be able to exploit Miami’s weak front 7 and that should set up the passing game. So look for Odell and Jarvis Landry to both have big days.